April 4, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 097 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:27 | 0:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 218 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | +114 | -47 |
Joe Stevenson locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:27 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 098 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 3 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 190 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 138 | 194 |
| Activity ELO | 1 150 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -19 |
Joe Stevenson demonstrated solid activity levels with 138 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Stevenson capitalized on this activity level, while Melvin Guillard's 194-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 081 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Joe Stevenson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melvin Guillard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

