Joe Stevenson vs Melvin Guillard

April 4, 2007

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1121
(+44)
Joe Stevenson
Winner: Joe Stevenson
Submission
Round 1 • 0:27

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Joe Stevenson+44
Melvin Guillard-31
1054
(-31)
Melvin Guillard

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +31Melvin Guillard: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Total UFC Fights55
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO1 0971 037
ELO Change+31-21
💡

What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +21Melvin Guillard: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0651 017
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +114Melvin Guillard: -47

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish0:270:27
Win Type ELO1 2181 102
ELO Change+114-47
💡

What Happened

Joe Stevenson locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:27 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +57Melvin Guillard: -57

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Significant Strikes Landed21
Significant Strikes Attempted37
Total Strikes Landed21
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0981 147
ELO Change+57-57
💡

What Happened

Virtually no striking took place with only 3 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +42Melvin Guillard: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time0:110:03
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 1901 020
ELO Change+42-42
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +39Melvin Guillard: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Days Since Last Fight138194
Activity ELO1 1501 067
ELO Change+39-19
💡

What Happened

Joe Stevenson demonstrated solid activity levels with 138 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Stevenson capitalized on this activity level, while Melvin Guillard's 194-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +27Melvin Guillard: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 0811 025
ELO Change+27-21
💡

What Happened

Joe Stevenson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melvin Guillard is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: +21Melvin Guillard: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonMelvin Guillard
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0651 017
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.