June 19, 2009
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 102 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Joe Stevenson's 4-fight experience advantage (11 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Stevenson for the expected result. Had Nate Diaz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 250 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Joe Stevenson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 149 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Joe Stevenson controlled the striking exchanges with 27 vs 6 significant strikes, 57.4% vs 20.7% accuracy. Joe Stevenson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 8 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:37 | 2:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 286 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +115 | -115 |
Joe Stevenson dominated Nate Diaz on the ground with 8 vs 1 takedowns, 10:37 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 216 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -22 |
Joe Stevenson demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Stevenson capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Joe Stevenson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Diaz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.