November 12, 2021
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 137 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -37 |
Joel Alvarez overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Moises.
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:01 | 3:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 292 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -40 |
Joel Alvarez earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:01, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 166 | 942 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Joel Alvarez controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 11 total strikes, 44 vs 11 significant strikes, 60.3% vs 45.8% accuracy. Joel Alvarez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 129 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 386 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 122 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -23 |
Joel Alvarez demonstrated extended layoff with 386 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Joel Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Moises's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 086 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -22 |
Joel Alvarez extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Moises is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joel Alvarez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.