October 9, 2006
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 930 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Thiago Alves's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had John Alessio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 953 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 931 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Thiago Alves earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 82 | 142 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 886 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Thiago Alves dominated the striking exchanges with 84 vs 18 total strikes, 63 vs 13 significant strikes, 44.4% vs 15.9% accuracy. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:11 | 1:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 895 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Thiago Alves did not secure a significant ground advantage against John Alessio on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:16 of control time, 7 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 136 | 104 |
| Activity ELO | 966 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +36 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 104 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while John Alessio's 136-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 951 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Alessio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Alessio | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 950 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

