John Alessio vs Thiago Alves

October 9, 2006

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

933
(-25)
John Alessio
Winner: Thiago Alves
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

John Alessio-25
Thiago Alves+28
1052
(+28)
Thiago Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -27Thiago Alves: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Total UFC Fights35
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO9301 039
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had John Alessio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -19Thiago Alves: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9531 021
ELO Change-19+19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -26Thiago Alves: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9311 124
ELO Change-26+26
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What Happened

Thiago Alves earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -61Thiago Alves: +61

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Significant Strikes Landed1363
Significant Strikes Attempted82142
Total Strikes Landed1884
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO8861 023
ELO Change-61+61
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What Happened

Thiago Alves dominated the striking exchanges with 84 vs 18 total strikes, 63 vs 13 significant strikes, 44.4% vs 15.9% accuracy. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -19Thiago Alves: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted100
Ground Control Time4:111:16
Ground Strikes Landed17
Ground ELO8951 029
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves did not secure a significant ground advantage against John Alessio on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:16 of control time, 7 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -14Thiago Alves: +36

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Days Since Last Fight136104
Activity ELO9661 132
ELO Change-14+36
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 104 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while John Alessio's 136-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -19Thiago Alves: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9511 029
ELO Change-19+21
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What Happened

Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Alessio is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
John Alessio: -19Thiago Alves: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn AlessioThiago Alves
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9501 021
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.