June 2, 2023
Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
John Castaneda's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Castaneda for the expected result. Had Muin Gafurov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 141 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
John Castaneda earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 88 | 157 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 097 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Muin Gafurov controlled the striking through superior volume (93 vs 70 total strikes), significant strike advantage (61 vs 40). However, since Muin Gafurov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. John Castaneda's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:16 | 1:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 150 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
John Castaneda landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
John Castaneda demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Castaneda capitalized on this activity level, while Muin Gafurov's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
John Castaneda started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Muin Gafurov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Muin Gafurov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.