July 24, 2020
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Nathaniel Wood's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nathaniel Wood for the expected result. Had John Castaneda pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 976 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Nathaniel Wood earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 131 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 232 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 136 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 968 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Nathaniel Wood dominated the striking exchanges with 136 vs 66 total strikes, 131 vs 55 significant strikes, 56.5% vs 42.3% accuracy. Nathaniel Wood capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 987 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Nathaniel Wood did not secure a significant ground advantage against John Castaneda on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:49 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +27 |
Nathaniel Wood demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nathaniel Wood capitalized on this activity level, while John Castaneda's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Nathaniel Wood started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Castaneda is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Castaneda | Nathaniel Wood |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

