September 30, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 120 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
John Lineker's 2-fight experience advantage (12 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Lineker for the expected result. Had John Dodson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 086 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 291 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with John Lineker receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 101 | 93 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 191 | 322 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 101 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 318 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
John Dodson controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (101 vs 93), superior accuracy (52.9% vs 28.9%). However, since John Dodson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. John Lineker's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 80 |
| Activity ELO | 1 132 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +45 |
John Lineker demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 80 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, John Lineker capitalized on this activity level, while John Dodson's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 106 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +43 |
John Lineker continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. John Dodson's now at 0.
| Metric | John Dodson | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

