October 4, 2012
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 078 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
John Dodson's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Dodson for the expected result. Had Jussier Formiga pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:35 | 4:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 186 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -27 |
John Dodson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 230 | 904 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -96 |
John Dodson dominated the striking exchanges with 36 vs 9 total strikes, 33 vs 9 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. John Dodson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 123 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
John Dodson landed 2 knockdowns followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 153 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -18 |
John Dodson demonstrated solid activity levels with 153 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Dodson capitalized on this activity level, while Jussier Formiga's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
John Dodson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jussier Formiga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Dodson | Jussier Formiga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.