January 1, 2010
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 953 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Rafaello Oliveira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 45 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 915 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Rafaello Oliveira controlled the striking exchanges with 55 vs 20 total strikes, 21 vs 1 significant strikes, 46.7% vs 3.3% accuracy. Rafaello Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 11:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 858 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -142 | +142 |
Rafaello Oliveira dominated John Gunderson on the ground with 6 vs 1 takedowns, 11:22 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +56 |
Rafaello Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafaello Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while John Gunderson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Rafaello Oliveira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Gunderson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Gunderson | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.