September 28, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 183 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
John Hathaway's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Hathaway for the expected result. Had John Maguire pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 110 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 224 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
John Hathaway earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 135 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 126 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 331 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
John Hathaway dominated the striking exchanges with 126 vs 31 total strikes, 41 vs 13 significant strikes. John Hathaway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:09 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 237 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
John Hathaway controlled John Maguire on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:09 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 176 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -16 |
John Hathaway demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Hathaway capitalized on this activity level, while John Maguire's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 140 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
John Hathaway extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Maguire is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Hathaway | John Maguire |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 110 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.