March 25, 2011
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 903 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
John Hathaway's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Hathaway for the expected result. Had Kris McCray pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 074 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 161 | 917 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with John Hathaway receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 207 | 133 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 280 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
John Hathaway dominated the striking exchanges with 207 vs 133 total strikes, 43 vs 48 significant strikes, 50.6% vs 60.0% accuracy. John Hathaway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:17 | 7:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 129 | 778 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
John Hathaway edged out Kris McCray on the ground with 3 takedowns, 4:17 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 130 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -13 |
John Hathaway demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Hathaway capitalized on this activity level, while Kris McCray's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 098 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -14 |
John Hathaway started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kris McCray is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Hathaway | Kris McCray |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 074 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.