January 17, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 010 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +55 |
Lorenz Larkin overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran John Howard.
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:17 | 2:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 028 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +128 |
Lorenz Larkin earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 15 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 888 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -159 | +159 |
Lorenz Larkin controlled the striking exchanges with 29 vs 10 significant strikes, 58.0% vs 66.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lorenz Larkin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:30 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 922 | 954 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Lorenz Larkin landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 114 | 142 |
| Activity ELO | 1 049 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +53 |
Lorenz Larkin demonstrated solid activity levels with 142 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lorenz Larkin capitalized on this activity level, while John Howard's 114-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 008 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +28 |
Lorenz Larkin started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Howard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Howard | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.