June 25, 2011
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 046 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Matt Brown's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had John Howard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 010 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 080 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Matt Brown earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 83 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 96 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 038 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Matt Brown dominated the striking exchanges with 96 vs 29 total strikes, 38 vs 20 significant strikes, 45.8% vs 57.1% accuracy. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:40 | 3:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 940 | 873 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Matt Brown edged out John Howard on the ground with 3 takedowns, 3:34 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 067 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +29 |
Matt Brown demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while John Howard's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Matt Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Howard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Howard | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 010 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

