John Howard vs Thiago Alves

December 10, 2010

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1063
(-18)
John Howard
Winner: Thiago Alves
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

John Howard-18
Thiago Alves+20
1277
(+20)
Thiago Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -24Thiago Alves: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Total UFC Fights614
Experience Gap-88
Experience ELO1 0841 222
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

Thiago Alves's 8-fight experience advantage (14 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had John Howard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -16Thiago Alves: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0341 142
ELO Change-16+16
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -15Thiago Alves: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1231 423
ELO Change-15+15
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What Happened

Thiago Alves earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -19Thiago Alves: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Significant Strikes Landed3773
Significant Strikes Attempted124185
Total Strikes Landed54105
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 0811 439
ELO Change-19+19
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What Happened

Thiago Alves dominated the striking exchanges with 105 vs 54 total strikes, 73 vs 37 significant strikes, 39.5% vs 29.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -34Thiago Alves: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted22
Ground Control Time0:532:57
Ground Strikes Landed03
Ground ELO1 0011 265
ELO Change-34+34
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What Happened

Thiago Alves landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -8Thiago Alves: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Days Since Last Fight133127
Activity ELO1 0901 357
ELO Change-8+17
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What Happened

Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while John Howard's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -12Thiago Alves: +13

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0561 239
ELO Change-12+13
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What Happened

Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Howard is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
John Howard: -17Thiago Alves: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn HowardThiago Alves
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0331 127
ELO Change-17+17
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.