December 7, 2007
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +69 |
Matt Arroyo earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:42, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 954 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Matt Arroyo slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 50.0% vs 20.0% accuracy. Matt Arroyo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:22 | 1:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 920 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Matt Arroyo controlled John Kolosci on the ground with 1:00 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Matt Arroyo demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Matt Arroyo capitalized on this activity level, while John Kolosci's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Matt Arroyo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Kolosci is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Kolosci | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.