August 2, 2013
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
John Lineker's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Lineker for the expected result. Had Jose Maria pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:03 | 1:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 144 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -33 |
John Lineker gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 209 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
John Lineker slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 37.9% vs 52.8% accuracy. John Lineker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:51 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 033 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
John Lineker controlled Jose Maria on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 0:51 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -19 |
John Lineker demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, John Lineker capitalized on this activity level, while Jose Maria's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 050 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
John Lineker extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jose Maria is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Lineker | Jose Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.