July 12, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 190 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
John Lineker's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Lineker for the expected result. Had Michael McDonald pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 128 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:43 | 2:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -31 |
John Lineker earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:43, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 429 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
John Lineker dominated the striking exchanges with 26 vs 14 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. John Lineker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 245 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
John Lineker landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 60 | 193 |
| Activity ELO | 1 247 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -18 |
John Lineker demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 60 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, John Lineker capitalized on this activity level, while Michael McDonald's 193-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 175 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -18 |
John Lineker continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Michael McDonald's now at 0.
| Metric | John Lineker | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 128 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

