November 16, 2012
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 042 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Matthew Riddle's 7-fight experience advantage (11 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matthew Riddle for the expected result. Had John Maguire pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 050 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Matthew Riddle earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 109 | 163 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 000 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Matthew Riddle controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 38 total strikes, 45 vs 37 significant strikes. Matthew Riddle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:28 | 3:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matthew Riddle edged out John Maguire on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:12 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 50 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Matthew Riddle demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matthew Riddle capitalized on this activity level, while John Maguire's 50-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 013 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Matthew Riddle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Maguire is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Maguire | Matthew Riddle |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.