July 6, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 090 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
John Makdessi's 10-fight experience advantage (12 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Makdessi for the expected result. Had Mehdi Baghdad pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 182 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with John Makdessi receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 84 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 152 | 193 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 110 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 144 | 926 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
John Makdessi controlled the striking exchanges with 110 vs 64 total strikes, 84 vs 60 significant strikes, 55.3% vs 31.1% accuracy. John Makdessi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:45 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 045 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
John Makdessi did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mehdi Baghdad on the ground with 1:45 of control time, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 208 | 172 |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
John Makdessi demonstrated standard activity with 208 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Makdessi capitalized on this activity level, while Mehdi Baghdad's 172-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 061 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
John Makdessi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mehdi Baghdad is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Mehdi Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

