John Makdessi vs Mehdi Baghdad

July 6, 2016

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1088
(+18)
John Makdessi
Winner: John Makdessi
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

John Makdessi+18
Mehdi Baghdad-16
955
(-16)
Mehdi Baghdad

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +23Mehdi Baghdad: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Total UFC Fights122
Experience Gap10-10
Experience ELO1 090953
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

John Makdessi's 10-fight experience advantage (12 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Makdessi for the expected result. Had Mehdi Baghdad pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +19Mehdi Baghdad: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 038964
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +5Mehdi Baghdad: -5

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 182970
ELO Change+5-5
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with John Makdessi receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +17Mehdi Baghdad: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Significant Strikes Landed8460
Significant Strikes Attempted152193
Total Strikes Landed11064
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 144926
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

John Makdessi controlled the striking exchanges with 110 vs 64 total strikes, 84 vs 60 significant strikes, 55.3% vs 31.1% accuracy. John Makdessi capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +19Mehdi Baghdad: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted11
Ground Control Time1:450:07
Ground Strikes Landed23
Ground ELO1 045924
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

John Makdessi did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mehdi Baghdad on the ground with 1:45 of control time, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +19Mehdi Baghdad: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Days Since Last Fight208172
Activity ELO1 104970
ELO Change+19-15
💡

What Happened

John Makdessi demonstrated standard activity with 208 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Makdessi capitalized on this activity level, while Mehdi Baghdad's 172-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +19Mehdi Baghdad: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 061966
ELO Change+19-17
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What Happened

John Makdessi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mehdi Baghdad is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
John Makdessi: +19Mehdi Baghdad: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 036964
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.