September 20, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 139 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
John Makdessi's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Makdessi for the expected result. Had Renee Forte pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:01 | 2:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 200 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -28 |
John Makdessi earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:01, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 165 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +128 | -128 |
John Makdessi controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 7 significant strikes, 51.3% vs 25.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. John Makdessi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 026 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
John Makdessi landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 125 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
John Makdessi demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Makdessi capitalized on this activity level, while Renee Forte's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
John Makdessi extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Renee Forte is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Makdessi | Renee Forte |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.