May 22, 2015
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 074 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Joseph Benavidez's 3-fight experience advantage (11 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joseph Benavidez for the expected result. Had John Moraga pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 050 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 168 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Joseph Benavidez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 109 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 116 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 094 | 1 246 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Joseph Benavidez dominated the striking exchanges with 116 vs 55 total strikes, 63 vs 42 significant strikes. Joseph Benavidez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 9:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 22 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Joseph Benavidez dominated John Moraga on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 9:10 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 137 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Joseph Benavidez demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Joseph Benavidez capitalized on this activity level, while John Moraga's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 061 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Joseph Benavidez extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Moraga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Moraga | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.