John Moraga vs Matheus Nicolau

July 7, 2016

Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1064
(-25)
John Moraga
Winner: Matheus Nicolau
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

John Moraga-25
Matheus Nicolau+28
1076
(+28)
Matheus Nicolau

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -36Matheus Nicolau: +53

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Total UFC Fights92
Experience Gap7-7
Experience ELO1 0381 074
ELO Change-36+53
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What Happened

Matheus Nicolau overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran John Moraga.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -23Matheus Nicolau: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0271 044
ELO Change-23+23
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -14Matheus Nicolau: +14

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1541 077
ELO Change-14+14
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matheus Nicolau receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -31Matheus Nicolau: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Significant Strikes Landed3141
Significant Strikes Attempted11385
Total Strikes Landed3353
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0631 129
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Matheus Nicolau edged the striking exchanges with 53 vs 33 total strikes, 41 vs 31 significant strikes, 48.2% vs 27.4% accuracy. Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -20Matheus Nicolau: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted21
Ground Control Time0:000:43
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 0601 135
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

Matheus Nicolau did not secure a significant ground advantage against John Moraga on the ground with 0:43 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -28Matheus Nicolau: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Days Since Last Fight412244
Activity ELO1 1091 056
ELO Change-28+35
💡

What Happened

Matheus Nicolau demonstrated standard activity with 244 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while John Moraga's 412-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -23Matheus Nicolau: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 0381 051
ELO Change-23+28
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What Happened

Matheus Nicolau extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Moraga is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
John Moraga: -23Matheus Nicolau: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricJohn MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Weight ClassFlyweightFlyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0231 044
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.