July 7, 2016
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +53 |
Matheus Nicolau overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran John Moraga.
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 027 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matheus Nicolau receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 85 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 063 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Matheus Nicolau edged the striking exchanges with 53 vs 33 total strikes, 41 vs 31 significant strikes, 48.2% vs 27.4% accuracy. Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 060 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Matheus Nicolau did not secure a significant ground advantage against John Moraga on the ground with 0:43 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 412 | 244 |
| Activity ELO | 1 109 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +35 |
Matheus Nicolau demonstrated standard activity with 244 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while John Moraga's 412-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 038 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +28 |
Matheus Nicolau extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Moraga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Moraga | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
