December 12, 2014
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 099 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
John Moraga's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Moraga for the expected result. Had Willie Gates pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:06 | 4:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 201 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -23 |
John Moraga earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:06, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Willie Gates was submitted.
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 95 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 120 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
John Moraga dominated the striking exchanges with 95 vs 29 total strikes, 56 vs 22 significant strikes, 58.9% vs 29.3% accuracy. John Moraga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:59 | 0:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 25 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 144 | 863 |
| ELO Change | +137 | -137 |
John Moraga dominated Willie Gates on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 6:59 of control time, 25 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 100 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 155 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -14 |
John Moraga demonstrated solid activity levels with 100 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Moraga capitalized on this activity level, while Willie Gates's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -18 |
John Moraga extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Willie Gates is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Moraga | Willie Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.