April 13, 2018
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 111 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
John Moraga's 2-fight experience advantage (13 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Moraga for the expected result. Had Wilson Reis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 247 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
John Moraga earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 69 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 199 | 917 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
John Moraga controlled the striking exchanges with 46 vs 12 significant strikes, 50.5% vs 19.7% accuracy. John Moraga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:42 | 7:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 149 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
John Moraga did not secure a significant ground advantage against Wilson Reis on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:42 of control time, 6 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 180 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
John Moraga demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Moraga capitalized on this activity level, while Wilson Reis's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -21 |
John Moraga extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Wilson Reis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | John Moraga | Wilson Reis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.