November 6, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 146 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -18 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 192 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Johnny Case earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 74 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 159 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 195 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Johnny Case controlled the striking exchanges with 90 vs 41 total strikes, 74 vs 31 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Johnny Case capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:20 | 5:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Johnny Case landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 379 |
| Activity ELO | 1 131 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -17 |
Johnny Case demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Johnny Case capitalized on this activity level, while Yan Cabral's 379-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -18 |
Johnny Case extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Yan Cabral is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Johnny Case | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

