October 1, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 112 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Thiago Santos's 15-fight experience advantage (22 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Johnny Walker pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 344 | 1 468 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Thiago Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 105 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 192 | 1 442 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Johnny Walker lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Thiago Santos's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 114 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 378 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 215 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Johnny Walker's 378-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +18 |
Thiago Santos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Johnny Walker is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.