November 3, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 143 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +87 |
Paulo Costa overcame a 18-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Johny Hendricks.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:23 | 1:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 321 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +132 |
Paulo Costa gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 90 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -115 | +115 |
Paulo Costa controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 27 total strikes, 49 vs 27 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Paulo Costa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 187 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 308 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +60 |
Paulo Costa demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paulo Costa capitalized on this activity level, while Johny Hendricks's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 145 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +37 |
Paulo Costa extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Johny Hendricks is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.