March 14, 2014
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 323 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Johny Hendricks's 2-fight experience advantage (13 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Johny Hendricks for the expected result. Had Robbie Lawler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 224 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -15 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Johny Hendricks captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 600 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Johny Hendricks earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 158 | 150 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 397 | 331 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 186 | 162 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 576 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
Johny Hendricks edged the striking exchanges with 186 vs 162 total strikes, 158 vs 150 significant strikes. Johny Hendricks capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:08 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 487 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Johny Hendricks controlled Robbie Lawler on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:08 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 386 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -12 |
Johny Hendricks demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Johny Hendricks capitalized on this activity level, while Robbie Lawler's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 274 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -12 |
Johny Hendricks started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Robbie Lawler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 185 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.