December 5, 2014
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 296 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +41 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (14 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 197 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +82 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Robbie Lawler captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 585 | 1 441 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Robbie Lawler receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 111 | 116 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 228 | 201 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 145 | 167 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 544 | 1 469 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Robbie Lawler edged the striking exchanges with 167 vs 145 total strikes, 116 vs 111 significant strikes, 57.7% vs 48.7% accuracy. Robbie Lawler capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 17 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:20 | 1:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 1 443 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Robbie Lawler slightly outworked Johny Hendricks on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:02 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 266 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 362 | 1 378 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +49 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Johny Hendricks's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 246 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +36 |
Robbie Lawler extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Johny Hendricks is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 160 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.