June 24, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 183 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Tim Boetsch's 2-fight experience advantage (22 vs 20 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Boetsch for the expected result. Had Johny Hendricks pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 123 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:46 | 0:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 385 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +120 |
Tim Boetsch gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 203 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -120 | +120 |
Tim Boetsch controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 10 total strikes, 41 vs 10 significant strikes, 60.3% vs 22.2% accuracy. Tim Boetsch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 267 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -88 | +88 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 342 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +60 |
Tim Boetsch demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Boetsch capitalized on this activity level, while Johny Hendricks's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 174 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +31 |
Tim Boetsch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Johny Hendricks is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Johny Hendricks | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 095 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.