October 13, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 114 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jon Fitch's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Fitch for the expected result. Had Kuniyoshi Hironaka pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 241 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Jon Fitch earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 78 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 184 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 360 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Jon Fitch dominated the striking exchanges with 184 vs 17 total strikes, 44 vs 4 significant strikes, 56.4% vs 23.5% accuracy. Jon Fitch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:00 | 0:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 28 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 329 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Jon Fitch dominated Kuniyoshi Hironaka on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 12:00 of control time, 28 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 108 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 162 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -14 |
Jon Fitch demonstrated solid activity levels with 108 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jon Fitch capitalized on this activity level, while Kuniyoshi Hironaka's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 099 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -16 |
Jon Fitch extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kuniyoshi Hironaka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Kuniyoshi Hironaka |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

