December 11, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 247 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Jon Fitch's 10-fight experience advantage (12 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Fitch for the expected result. Had Mike Pierce pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 173 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 364 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Jon Fitch earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 163 | 174 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 109 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 389 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
Jon Fitch edged the striking exchanges. Jon Fitch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:18 | 3:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 486 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Jon Fitch controlled Mike Pierce on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 4:18 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 88 |
| Activity ELO | 1 311 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -7 |
Jon Fitch demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jon Fitch capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Pierce's 88-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 267 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -9 |
Jon Fitch extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Pierce is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 168 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.