July 10, 2009
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 228 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Jon Fitch's 9-fight experience advantage (11 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Fitch for the expected result. Had Paulo Thiago pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 160 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 351 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Jon Fitch earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 127 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 382 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Jon Fitch dominated the striking exchanges with 127 vs 13 total strikes, 15 vs 5 significant strikes. Jon Fitch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:21 | 1:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 460 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Jon Fitch dominated Paulo Thiago on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 12:21 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 298 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -8 |
Jon Fitch demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jon Fitch capitalized on this activity level, while Paulo Thiago's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 255 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -10 |
Jon Fitch extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paulo Thiago is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 155 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.