June 27, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 090 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:37 | 4:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 223 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -43 |
Jon Fitch gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 338 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +181 | -181 |
Jon Fitch dominated the striking exchanges with 104 vs 2 total strikes, 51 vs 1 significant strikes, 70.8% vs 100.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jon Fitch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:46 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 43 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 297 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Jon Fitch dominated Thiago Alves on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:46 of control time, 43 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 83 | 74 |
| Activity ELO | 1 128 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -25 |
Jon Fitch demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 83 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jon Fitch capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Alves's 74-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Jon Fitch extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jon Fitch | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.