March 18, 2011
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 225 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Jon Jones's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Jones for the expected result. Had Mauricio Rua pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 178 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -22 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Jon Jones captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:37 | 2:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 483 | 1 361 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -43 |
Jon Jones gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 75 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 102 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 572 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | +189 | -189 |
Jon Jones dominated the striking exchanges with 102 vs 11 total strikes, 75 vs 9 significant strikes, 66.4% vs 22.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jon Jones capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:50 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 39 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 475 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Jon Jones dominated Mauricio Rua on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:50 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 42 | 316 |
| Activity ELO | 1 304 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -16 |
Jon Jones demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 42 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jon Jones capitalized on this activity level, while Mauricio Rua's 316-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 162 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -18 |
Jon Jones extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mauricio Rua is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 127 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.