November 16, 2024
UFC Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 24 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 547 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Jon Jones's 5-fight experience advantage (24 vs 19 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Jones for the expected result. Had Stipe Miocic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 583 | 1 414 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -15 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Jon Jones captured the UFC Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:29 | 4:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 929 | 1 789 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -39 |
Jon Jones gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 96 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 119 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 890 | 1 589 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Jon Jones dominated the striking exchanges with 104 vs 42 total strikes, 96 vs 37 significant strikes, 80.7% vs 41.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jon Jones capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:51 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 40 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 839 | 1 493 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jon Jones controlled Stipe Miocic on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:51 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 624 | 1 331 |
| Activity ELO | 1 601 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -10 |
Jon Jones demonstrated extended layoff with 624 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Jon Jones capitalized on this activity level, while Stipe Miocic's 1331-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 604 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -7 |
Jon Jones continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Stipe Miocic's now at 0.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 504 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.