July 5, 2019
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 492 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Jon Jones's 2-fight experience advantage (21 vs 19 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Jones for the expected result. Had Thiago Santos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 512 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -5 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Jon Jones captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 798 | 1 520 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jon Jones receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 90 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 818 | 1 497 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
Jon Jones controlled the striking exchanges with 59 vs 43 significant strikes, 65.6% vs 25.9% accuracy. Jon Jones capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 803 | 1 319 |
| ELO Change | +2 | -2 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 574 | 1 364 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -11 |
Jon Jones demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jon Jones capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Santos's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 567 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -5 |
Jon Jones extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jon Jones | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 309 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.