July 2, 2010
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 074 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Jon Madsen's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Madsen for the expected result. Had Karlos Vemola pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 057 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 082 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Jon Madsen earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 118 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 098 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Jon Madsen dominated the striking exchanges with 118 vs 21 total strikes, 37 vs 16 significant strikes, 69.8% vs 38.1% accuracy. Jon Madsen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:49 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Jon Madsen dominated Karlos Vemola on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 9:49 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 109 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -18 |
Jon Madsen demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jon Madsen capitalized on this activity level, while Karlos Vemola's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Jon Madsen extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karlos Vemola is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jon Madsen | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

