August 16, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Josh Koscheck's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Koscheck for the expected result. Had Jonathan Goulet pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:10 | 4:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 980 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +47 |
Josh Koscheck earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:10, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 869 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -103 | +103 |
Josh Koscheck controlled the striking exchanges with 31 vs 1 total strikes, 23 vs 1 significant strikes, 76.7% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Josh Koscheck capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 063 | 1 272 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Josh Koscheck controlled Jonathan Goulet on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:37 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 50 | 50 |
| Activity ELO | 1 022 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +80 |
Josh Koscheck demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 50 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Josh Koscheck capitalized on this activity level, while Jonathan Goulet's 50-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Josh Koscheck extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jonathan Goulet is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.