May 7, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 018 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Marcus Davis's 4-fight experience advantage (13 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcus Davis for the expected result. Had Jonathan Goulet pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 989 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:23 | 1:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 066 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +50 |
Marcus Davis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 908 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Marcus Davis dominated the striking exchanges with 11 vs 5 significant strikes, 64.7% vs 31.3% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Marcus Davis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:31 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 089 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Marcus Davis landed 2 knockdowns followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 514 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 074 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +25 |
Marcus Davis demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcus Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Jonathan Goulet's 514-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Marcus Davis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jonathan Goulet is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 989 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.