December 7, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 039 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Jonathan Goulet's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jonathan Goulet for the expected result. Had Paul Georgieff pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 029 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -48 |
Jonathan Goulet earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:42, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 870 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Jonathan Goulet edged the striking exchanges with 64.7% vs 40.0% accuracy. Jonathan Goulet capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:32 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 131 | 889 |
| ELO Change | +111 | -111 |
Jonathan Goulet dominated Paul Georgieff on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 3:32 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 81 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 066 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -21 |
Jonathan Goulet demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 81 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jonathan Goulet capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Georgieff's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Jonathan Goulet started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Georgieff is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jonathan Goulet | Paul Georgieff |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.