August 2, 2019
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 035 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Matt Schnell's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Schnell for the expected result. Had Jordan Espinosa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:23 | 1:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 006 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +68 |
Matt Schnell earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 021 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Jordan Espinosa controlled the striking through superior accuracy (83.3% vs 25.0%). However, since Jordan Espinosa lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Schnell's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:25 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +37 |
Matt Schnell demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Schnell capitalized on this activity level, while Jordan Espinosa's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +27 |
Matt Schnell extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jordan Espinosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

