March 5, 2021
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 962 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Tim Elliott's 9-fight experience advantage (15 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Elliott for the expected result. Had Jordan Espinosa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 985 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 942 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Tim Elliott earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 952 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Tim Elliott dominated the striking exchanges with 91 vs 22 total strikes, 25 vs 13 significant strikes. Tim Elliott capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 13:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 913 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Tim Elliott dominated Jordan Espinosa on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 13:19 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 235 |
| Activity ELO | 994 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Tim Elliott demonstrated standard activity with 235 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tim Elliott capitalized on this activity level, while Jordan Espinosa's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
Tim Elliott extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jordan Espinosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jordan Espinosa | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.