April 15, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 106 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jordan Leavitt's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jordan Leavitt for the expected result. Had Trey Ogden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 163 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jordan Leavitt receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 105 | 90 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 124 | 130 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 076 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jordan Leavitt controlled the striking exchanges with 69 vs 41 significant strikes, 65.7% vs 45.6% accuracy. Jordan Leavitt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:17 | 2:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Jordan Leavitt did not secure a significant ground advantage against Trey Ogden on the ground with 0 takedowns, 5:17 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 078 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -19 |
Jordan Leavitt demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jordan Leavitt capitalized on this activity level, while Trey Ogden's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Jordan Leavitt extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Trey Ogden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jordan Leavitt | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

