January 30, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 129 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Thiago Alves's 14-fight experience advantage (19 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Jordan Mein pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 235 | 1 407 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +69 |
Thiago Alves gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 204 | 1 435 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Jordan Mein controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (37 vs 23). However, since Jordan Mein lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 112 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Thiago Alves landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 288 |
| Activity ELO | 1 093 | 1 329 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated standard activity with 288 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Jordan Mein's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Thiago Alves extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jordan Mein is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jordan Mein | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.