September 16, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 957 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Justin Edwards earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 995 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Justin Edwards slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 56.2% vs 66.7% accuracy. Justin Edwards capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 13 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:45 | 4:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 963 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Justin Edwards edged out Jorge Lopez on the ground with 2 takedowns, 4:22 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +56 |
Justin Edwards demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Justin Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Jorge Lopez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Justin Edwards started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jorge Lopez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jorge Lopez | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.