May 28, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 099 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +44 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (10 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 241 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Lorenz Larkin receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 121 | 122 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 176 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Jorge Masvidal lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Lorenz Larkin's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:45 | 2:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Lorenz Larkin did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jorge Masvidal on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:07 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 176 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +59 |
Lorenz Larkin demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lorenz Larkin capitalized on this activity level, while Jorge Masvidal's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +29 |
Lorenz Larkin started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jorge Masvidal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.