March 30, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 094 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Jorge Rivera's 2-fight experience advantage (12 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jorge Rivera for the expected result. Had Nate Quarry pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:29 | 0:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 315 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | +121 | -59 |
Jorge Rivera gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 3 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 427 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +225 | -225 |
Jorge Rivera dominated the striking exchanges with 58 vs 19 total strikes, 29 vs 19 significant strikes, 44.6% vs 26.8% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Jorge Rivera capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 153 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Jorge Rivera landed 3 knockdowns followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 158 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 101 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -32 |
Jorge Rivera demonstrated solid activity levels with 158 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jorge Rivera capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Quarry's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 077 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -26 |
Jorge Rivera extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Quarry is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nate Quarry |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.