March 31, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Jorge Rivera's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jorge Rivera for the expected result. Had Nissen Osterneck pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 009 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 119 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jorge Rivera receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 138 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Nissen Osterneck controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (35 vs 29), superior accuracy (50.0% vs 60.4%). However, since Nissen Osterneck lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jorge Rivera's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:04 | 4:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 997 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Jorge Rivera landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 298 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Jorge Rivera demonstrated standard activity with 298 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jorge Rivera capitalized on this activity level, while Nissen Osterneck's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Jorge Rivera started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nissen Osterneck is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jorge Rivera | Nissen Osterneck |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 009 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.