October 5, 2024
Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 270 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +70 |
Mario Bautista overcame a 11-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jose Aldo.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 219 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 492 | 1 353 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Mario Bautista receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 117 | 142 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 399 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Mario Bautista edged the striking exchanges with 90 vs 65 total strikes, 34.5% vs 43.6% accuracy. Mario Bautista capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 7:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 298 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Mario Bautista edged out Jose Aldo on the ground with 7:15 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 1 292 | 1 272 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +32 |
Mario Bautista demonstrated standard activity with 267 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mario Bautista capitalized on this activity level, while Jose Aldo's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 229 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +71 |
Mario Bautista continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jose Aldo's now at 0.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 128 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.